Posted at 21 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Nov) 2.8%, 2.9% forecast, 2.8% previous
• US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Nov) 2.4%, 2.5% forecast, 2.3% previous
• US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• US Personal Income (MoM) (Nov) 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 0.7% previous
• US Personal Spending (MoM) (Nov) 0.4%, 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
• US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Nov) 0.3%, N/A forecast, 0.1% previous
•Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 1.1% previous
•Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 0.6%, 0.7% forecast, 0.6% previous
•EU Belgium NBB Business Climate (Dec) -13.8, -11.7 forecast, -11.1 previous
• US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec) 2.8%, 2.9% forecast, 2.6% previous
• US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec) 3.0%, 3.1% forecast, 3.2% previous
• US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Dec) 73.3, 71.6 forecast, 76.9 previous
• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec) 74.0, 74.0 forecast, 71.8 previous
• US Michigan Current Conditions (Dec) 75.1, 77.7 forecast, 63.9 previous
•EU Consumer Confidence (Dec) -14.5, -14.0 forecast, -13.8 previous
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 3.1%, 3.2% forecast, 3.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Data Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rebounded from early losses against the dollar on Friday after data showed a slowdown in US inflation. The latest inflation report in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index showed a 2.4% rise in November on an annual basis, just below the 2.5% estimate of economists polled by Reuters.After the data, traders raised their slightly increased expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025, now expecting the first one in March and another by October. Before the data, traders saw a roughly 50% chance of a second rate cut by December 2025. Also providing support were comments from Fed officials, with some acknowledging they were starting to factor in fiscal policy uncertainty, such as tariffs, in their outlooks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0439(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0528(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0346(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0300(Psychological level)
GBP/USD: Sterling rose against the dollar on Friday as cooler U.S. inflation reading and UK retail sales data helped sterling recover against dollar. Also providing some comfort was a smaller-than-expected budget deficit, giving a slight boost to finance minister Rachel Reeves, who has been under pressure following her budget announcement in October. U.S consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.4% last month after a downwardly revised 0.3% gain in October. Data on Friday showed British retail sales rose by a weaker-than-expected 0.2% in November. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2690(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2731 (Dec 18th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2560(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2524(Lower BB)
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Friday as looked past rising Canadian political uncertainty. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau looked set to lose power early next year after a key ally said he would move to bring down the minority Liberal government and trigger an election.On the data front, Canadian retail sales grew by 0.6% in October from September at C$67.58 billion ($46.99 billion), led by higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers, Statistics Canada said on Friday. Sales were likely unchanged in November, the agency said in a flash estimate. In October, sales were up in five of nine subsectors, representing 52.6% of retail trade. In volume terms, retail sales were unchanged. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4471(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4545 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4267(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4128(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar slipped lower on Friday as yen rose after officials step up intervention warnings. Finance Minister Kato on Friday expressed concern over recent foreign exchange fluctuations and stated the government was prepared to intervene if speculative actions became excessive.Japan last intervened in the currency market in July, buying yen to stabilize the currency after it fell to a 38-year low of below 161 per dollar. The dollar hit a five-month high of 157.93 against Japanese yen after the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged. The dollar was last down 0.65% at 156.41 yen.
.Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.88 (23.6 %fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.28 (Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.21(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 154.90(50%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe's STOXX 600 posted its second consecutive weekly decline on Friday, with the healthcare sector leading the losses after Danish company Novo Nordisk dropped on disappointing results from its next-generation obesity drug trial.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.26 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.43 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.26 percent.
Wall Street rallied on Friday as cooler-than-expected inflation data helped investors overlook concerns about a potential government shutdown and new tariff threats from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.18% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.09% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.03% percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices settled little changed on Friday as markets weighed Chinese demand and interest rate-cut expectations after data showed cooling U.S. inflation.
Brent crude futures closed up 6 cents, or 0.08%, at $72.94 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 8 cents, or 0.12%, at $69.46 per barrel.